Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6729

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6728, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6729
    22 Oct 2026, 19:12 UTC

    CSPG4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCSPG4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede67cc9dd47fe03c1

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    06c20b5920c830ab78750aa2…
    follows e93b43643307…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6729: CSPG4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CSPG4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.