Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6706

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6705, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6706
    22 Oct 2026, 18:42 UTC

    TNFSF12

    microglia, braak

    predictionTNFSF12 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1bafd11054a67dd1

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e6c78c4480636d5a9882870b…
    follows fdf86d841e65…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6706: TNFSF12 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFSF12 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.