Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6695

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6694, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6695
    22 Oct 2026, 18:25 UTC

    DUSP6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUSP6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered484229cd0a580815

    discovery-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.889 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d378a703d9be4118f9996b68…
    follows c32196d67060…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6695: DUSP6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUSP6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.