Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6660

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6659, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6660
    22 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC

    FGFR2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionFGFR2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede4ae4456028fa138

    discovery-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.155 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc956f7c9c52c54f849416ec…
    follows 3f1290db9ae7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6660: FGFR2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGFR2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.