Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6582

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6581, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6582
    22 Oct 2026, 15:51 UTC

    ARSB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARSB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered199a4e1aa3907e56

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a828999fa6da5846c67e9f1…
    follows 38c54fe6c540…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6582: ARSB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARSB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.