Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6537

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6536, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6537
    22 Oct 2026, 14:51 UTC

    MIXL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMIXL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0340005ac15b9b39

    discovery+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0941450c7664219e6e970df0…
    follows 09f6bb1f8954…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6537: MIXL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MIXL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.