Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6529

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6528, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6529
    22 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC

    VHL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVHL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5070ba3950ec87aa

    discovery+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aac3e701bdcf3e2d66f0df30…
    follows 441ea3d34524…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6529: VHL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.07, sign flips 13; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VHL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.