Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6502

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6501, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6502
    22 Oct 2026, 14:01 UTC

    IL31RA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL31RA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered593b92305b72de7f

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    06dde61e2098078cdb14c217…
    follows 3d4579216b18…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6502: IL31RA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL31RA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.