Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6499

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6498, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6499
    22 Oct 2026, 13:58 UTC

    SLC30A10

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC30A10 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered784596691e32016b

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    612cd066f776ccd50f1d85d3…
    follows 397e3111af3a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6499: SLC30A10 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.68 (p 0.0019, n 18) vs -0.12 in astrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC30A10 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC30A10 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 3.2e-4)