Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6432

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6431, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6432
    22 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC

    KLF16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKLF16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f2f67115f9142ab

    discovery-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c7121b9c6372e0a265ed614…
    follows 914232d520d4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6432: KLF16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLF16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.