Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6416

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.33 p 0.393). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6415, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6416
    22 Oct 2026, 12:08 UTC

    DELE1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDELE1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredba867c6a254c2964

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.393 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.33 p 0.393)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9df5fd18cca7edeb5cfc6908…
    follows 01353bb134cf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6416: DELE1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.08. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DELE1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.