Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6383

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6382, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6383
    22 Oct 2026, 11:24 UTC

    NLRP1

    microglia, braak

    predictionNLRP1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7f582db39142e78a

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.567 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d7cfd6c994deb38bfa7e3edc…
    follows d77d58fe6f34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6383: NLRP1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLRP1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.