Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6381

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6380, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6381
    22 Oct 2026, 11:22 UTC

    CAPN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAPN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcef1f001a04ed216

    discovery-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a694db5abb292a775e5567cd…
    follows f1a67b5cee43…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6381: CAPN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAPN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.