Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6366

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6365, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6366
    22 Oct 2026, 11:02 UTC

    A2M

    microglia, braak

    predictionA2M in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb35f869f8c4ddc4

    discovery+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe1d6db1a9b5b803840dd74d…
    follows fb3a3b85c1ba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6366: A2M in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for A2M in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.