Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6337

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6336, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6337
    22 Oct 2026, 10:24 UTC

    PHF21B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPHF21B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb20bd3c666f8d59e

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    50212b1162eb5009eebd54a3…
    follows 0eab5d14f70c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6337: PHF21B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHF21B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.