Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6305

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6304, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6305
    22 Oct 2026, 09:45 UTC

    RHOA

    microglia, braak

    predictionRHOA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered106dc52d2ee8e4d4

    discovery-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.318 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    55e2048ce52affe5d927a52f…
    follows 6f04ab1e8f41…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6305: RHOA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHOA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.