Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6273

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6272, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6273
    22 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC

    TJP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTJP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f3d13c7a65cbd1f

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5864deba7c3438fc6744d53a…
    follows bbbae57a5a34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6273: TJP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TJP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.