Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6256

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6255, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6256
    22 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    PIK3CD

    microglia, braak

    predictionPIK3CD in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered755d958ee0263155

    discovery-0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    485c761bdf4d699d397e33b6…
    follows 359c12f09608…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6256: PIK3CD in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIK3CD in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.