Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6169

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6168, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6169
    22 Oct 2026, 06:44 UTC

    RUBCN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRUBCN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8dcea4c6e32f9c8

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c5e9f49576a980d898034d03…
    follows fbe3fc5246a6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6169: RUBCN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs -0.20 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RUBCN in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RUBCN · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 3.2e-4)