Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0613

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 612, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0613
    17 Oct 2026, 02:31 UTC

    SCN3A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCN3A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1c27d54281106516

    discovery-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    400d35157f8b46ca5e8d051e…
    follows fcdbcb85d3df…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0613: SCN3A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.19, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN3A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.