Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6083

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.467). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6082, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6083
    22 Oct 2026, 04:48 UTC

    UBC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered967c7ea2dcaa69be

    discovery+0.28 p=0.467 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.821 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.467)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    32b3da4e3147b6a64c770837…
    follows 2dd1069badb0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6083: UBC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.