Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6050

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6049, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6050
    22 Oct 2026, 04:01 UTC

    GORASP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGORASP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0167c3be03c2722b

    discovery-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5f6d4ea2c0e11e7279170f02…
    follows 68c22cf23cb0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6050: GORASP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GORASP1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GORASP1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 3.3e-4)