Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6033

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.73 p 0.027; held-out +0.41 p 0.272). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6032, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6033
    22 Oct 2026, 03:39 UTC

    MFN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMFN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2315507e313a2bc3

    discovery+0.73 p=0.027 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.272 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.73 p 0.027; held-out +0.41 p 0.272)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    e6b9997d1a3c1b345f49c428…
    follows b0c9d624393b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6033: MFN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18), 95% CI +0.13 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.50 to +0.68, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MFN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.