Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6013

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6012, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6013
    22 Oct 2026, 03:15 UTC

    ITGAX

    microglia, braak

    predictionITGAX in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf521b0abcea84fb6

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    35a0b4214ab4c219e9ea7ca2…
    follows f6da5fc1cdd6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6013: ITGAX in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITGAX in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.