Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6001

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6000, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6001
    22 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    RYR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRYR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbcd4fb61b69b27c7

    discovery-0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a7fa7c336f0b75ae6c81d5e3…
    follows b9eb8443b5ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6001: RYR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RYR1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RYR1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 3.3e-4)