Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5996

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5995, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5996
    22 Oct 2026, 02:50 UTC

    CDON

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDON in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddec0b177fb885863

    discovery+0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    789c8e867329b807c0ea8297…
    follows a43851643756…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5996: CDON in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDON in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.