Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5937

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5936, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5937
    22 Oct 2026, 02:14 UTC

    FLT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFLT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb1571e3497675c0

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    459e9b8ce31bd9af7d366d60…
    follows f0e9c418b5fa…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5937: FLT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FLT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.