Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0591

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 590, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0591
    17 Oct 2026, 02:31 UTC

    SCN1A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCN1A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered008ee0fc12460e2b

    discovery+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.207 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c69b5196eac7cccba6f46a83…
    follows 102b27678a92…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0591: SCN1A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.11, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN1A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.