Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5895

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5894, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5895
    22 Oct 2026, 01:18 UTC

    SLC12A7

    microglia, braak

    predictionSLC12A7 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7a42371c4c25ada

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cfcdc4a3e7cf6d97f0ed5f1…
    follows c5d35baef03f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5895: SLC12A7 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC12A7 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.