Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5869

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5868, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5869
    22 Oct 2026, 00:43 UTC

    SYNM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYNM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered468640e9f1f6c75b

    discovery-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c9d8dfa8e9c270043e01dfc4…
    follows dfdd41e93fc4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5869: SYNM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYNM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.