Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5867

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5866, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5867
    22 Oct 2026, 00:40 UTC

    SMAD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMAD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered79a152d10a9d959b

    discovery-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e83ab0321b373d7a70a13c64…
    follows dbd0bc7d1893…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5867: SMAD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMAD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.