Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0058

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.312). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 57, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0058
    16 Oct 2026, 15:41 UTC

    MYO5A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMYO5A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9bff2cb0c48a45c2

    discovery+0.16 p=0.312 n=42

    replication-0.12 p=0.459 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.312)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e64bbe69a8c42f03400fb95d…
    follows 5e4698705b61…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0058: MYO5A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.860, n 84), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.23. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.04 (p 0.692, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.09 (p 0.422); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.938, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.05, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.538, n 75). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYO5A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.