Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5798
    21 Oct 2026, 23:09 UTC

    WNT7A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWNT7A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54d9da544d45f1d1

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.224 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1312b3e4737c7825c8db8c89…
    follows 7c5a16c5e955…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5798: WNT7A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT7A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.