Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5777

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5776, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5777
    21 Oct 2026, 22:41 UTC

    MAP1A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAP1A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered19a8b694e950cc52

    discovery+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c8849fd73e3623a76177b4e3…
    follows 0489aa6a3609…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5777: MAP1A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.03, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP1A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.