Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5772

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.20 p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5771, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5772
    21 Oct 2026, 22:33 UTC

    SLC4A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC4A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredac932a6dfc9f14e7

    discovery-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.20 p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    04519fdc438ec0feff896e2c…
    follows aa2fd03ac7f3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5772: SLC4A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.71 to -0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC4A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.