Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5739

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5738, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5739
    21 Oct 2026, 21:52 UTC

    SPRED1

    microglia, braak

    predictionSPRED1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered39e91d98216fbad5

    discovery+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    26aeda573857106a09fb1d12…
    follows 99aefd9b44a0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5739: SPRED1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPRED1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.