Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5731

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5730, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5731
    21 Oct 2026, 21:41 UTC

    ARL17A

    microglia, braak

    predictionARL17A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ab009a9e604c37c

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1dee5d42c5ec648f1d6f218…
    follows 6cfd9a4fb48a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5731: ARL17A in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL17A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.