Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5699

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5698, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5699
    21 Oct 2026, 20:57 UTC

    MAPK8IP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAPK8IP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede845c53b744a1493

    discovery-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b910e789d5ecbe2fdd4ff06…
    follows f2199ba1bc8c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5699: MAPK8IP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK8IP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.