Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5689

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.530). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5688, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5689
    21 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC

    PER2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPER2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9c9e590eebe2814e

    discovery+0.24 p=0.530 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.530)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6ed4a1b32e4e4b16346a4a7…
    follows b7ae6fa8f96c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5689: PER2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PER2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.