Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5666

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.342). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5665, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5666
    21 Oct 2026, 20:10 UTC

    OTOP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOTOP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered82a2558dba2c7528

    discovery-0.36 p=0.342 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.342)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca97a9be440fd3a4085460b4…
    follows 1521615d28ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5666: OTOP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OTOP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.