Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5649

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5648, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5649
    21 Oct 2026, 19:48 UTC

    PHYHIPL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHYHIPL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c74ac745bddef8f

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d683944c13229f6894961c82…
    follows 58834da6efc0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5649: PHYHIPL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHYHIPL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.