Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5638

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.369). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5637, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5638
    21 Oct 2026, 19:34 UTC

    RAB3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAB3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0fb32739a309229d

    discovery-0.34 p=0.369 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.369)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9863dab0f826c961b7ba6201…
    follows 96b9403570bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5638: RAB3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.