Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5608

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.90 p 0.0011; held-out +0.29 p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5607, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5608
    21 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    GRM7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRM7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered55c3b3d55a0c8dd6

    discovery+0.90 p=0.0011 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.90 p 0.0011; held-out +0.29 p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ba0bef610cf64b25edab9c85…
    follows 0cbe26e46c86…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5608: GRM7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs +0.48 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRM7 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GRM7 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)