Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5573

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.350). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5572, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5573
    21 Oct 2026, 18:03 UTC

    CLEC19A

    microglia, braak

    predictionCLEC19A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc51a4fd2253e9b46

    discovery+0.35 p=0.350 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.350)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee52c39d1f7620845a612945…
    follows 35239148eba0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5573: CLEC19A in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLEC19A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.