Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5563

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.912). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5562, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5563
    21 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC

    MICU1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMICU1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd5944e0ecfe78f8

    discovery-0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.912)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    064156a59e6dbdb085b9fac5…
    follows 651df35a8b6b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5563: MICU1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MICU1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.