Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0550

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 549, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0550
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    ADORA2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADORA2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf1f2fb98ab687f89

    discovery-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cbeace26fb313a1837fd2c6d…
    follows d814f7773483…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0550: ADORA2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADORA2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.