Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5499

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out +0.36 p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5498, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5499
    21 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    FA2H

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionFA2H in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc47ce8e07726fcbe

    discovery-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out +0.36 p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2a5f5921f08147cef5fd3bbb…
    follows 9981d2f9b6ba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5499: FA2H in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.10, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FA2H in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.