Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5496

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5495, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5496
    21 Oct 2026, 16:27 UTC

    TLR3

    microglia, braak

    predictionTLR3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd8afad3e76385ec9

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6d906364e28c3829e7dcdf18…
    follows 1b9045d6bcb7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5496: TLR3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TLR3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.