Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0548

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 547, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0548
    17 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC

    GRIN2C

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGRIN2C in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede26e8328531299bf

    discovery-0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.39, p 0.297)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    34f8714d2f455a58c4becafa…
    follows c3e2299c2393…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0548: GRIN2C in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.02, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRIN2C in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.