Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5473

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5472, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5473
    21 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

    PCDH9

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPCDH9 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ca632ab2f7b21cf

    discovery+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.348)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    66a5711867dd9d026225da67…
    follows d8eae88de802…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5473: PCDH9 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH9 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.